Big-5 Bank Q1 2026 Earnings — What to Watch in Late May
Canada's Big-5 banks — RBC, TD, BMO, Scotiabank, and CIBC — report fiscal Q1 2026 earnings (covering November 2025 through January 2026) in the last week of May. National Bank rounds out the Big-6 a few days earlier. These reports drive roughly 30% of the TSX's earnings power and set the dividend tone for the rest of the year.
Expected report calendar
Based on the banks' recent reporting patterns, the late-May 2026 calendar is expected to land roughly as follows:
- Scotiabank — typically first to report, around May 26.
- BMO — usually May 27.
- National Bank — around May 28.
- RBC — typically May 28 or 29.
- CIBC — around May 29.
- TD — typically last, around May 30.
Confirm exact dates on each bank's investor relations page closer to the week.
The four numbers that matter
1. Provisions for Credit Losses (PCLs)
PCLs are what banks set aside for loans they expect to go bad. Through 2025, PCLs climbed steadily — particularly in commercial real estate and unsecured consumer credit. The Q1 2026 print will tell us whether PCLs are stabilizing (good for earnings) or still climbing (bad for earnings, and a signal of broader credit stress). Watch the PCL ratio (PCLs as a percentage of average loans) more than the absolute dollar amount.
2. Net Interest Margin (NIM)
With the BoC on hold at 2.25% and bond yields above 3%, banks should be able to defend margins. But deposit competition is fierce — Wealthsimple Cash, EQ Bank, and the credit unions have been pressuring the Big-5 to pay more for deposits. NIM guidance for the rest of 2026 will tell us whether margins are holding, expanding, or compressing.
3. Capital ratios (CET1)
OSFI requires Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratios above 11.5% for the Big-6, including the 1.5% Domestic Stability Buffer. Most of the Big-5 sit comfortably above this. A CET1 above 13% gives the bank room to raise the dividend or buy back stock; below 12% and the bank is in defensive mode.
4. Dividend announcements
The Big-5 typically review their quarterly dividends each quarter. The market expectation for Q1 2026 is small bumps at RBC and CIBC, holds at TD, BMO, and Scotiabank. A surprise hold from RBC or CIBC, or a surprise hike from TD or Scotiabank, will move the stock.
What investors should watch by bank
- RBC — capital markets revenue is the swing factor. A weak quarter here would shake the "premium-priced bank" narrative.
- TD — US retail performance and the lingering AML-related expense drag are both key. TD trades at a discount to peers; closing that discount requires a clean US quarter.
- BMO — US commercial real estate exposure is the question. PCLs in the US segment will get the most attention.
- Scotiabank — Latin American performance and the strategic pivot toward US/Canada/Mexico under Scott Thomson. Watch for capital allocation commentary.
- CIBC — Canadian P&C banking margins and Simplii Financial deposit growth.
What it means for your portfolio
If you own a Canadian financials ETF (e.g. ZEB, XFN)
Q1 results will move the ETF more than any single bank. If PCLs stabilize and dividends hold or rise across the group, expect the ETF to rally on the cumulative relief. If two or more banks raise PCLs significantly, expect a sector-wide pullback.
If you own individual bank stocks
Don't trade earnings — the gap moves on report day are usually faded within two weeks. The longer-term question is whether your specific bank is gaining or losing share on the metrics that matter (NIM, deposit growth, fee income).
If you own a TSX index ETF
Bank earnings are roughly 30% of the index. A clean Q1 across the Big-5 is the single biggest swing factor for the index in May. Use our TFSA calculator to confirm your contribution timing — adding to an index ETF before earnings vs. after is largely a coin flip, but a regular schedule beats market-timing.
The bigger picture
Canadian banks are slow-moving by design. The interesting question for 2026 isn't any single quarter — it's whether the credit cycle is rolling over (PCLs falling, dividends rising) or still deteriorating (PCLs climbing, dividends frozen). Q1 is the first real read on that question. We'll publish a recap within 48 hours of TD's report on May 30 with the actual numbers and what changed.
For the macro backdrop, see our BoC June 4 rate decision preview and TSX year-to-date recap.
More market coverage — track BoC decisions, TSX recaps, and Big-5 bank earnings on the LoonieLabs Markets hub →
Editorial disclaimer
This is news reporting by LoonieLabs Editorial for general information only. It is not financial, tax, legal, or investment advice. Markets coverage is reported analysis, not personalized advice — we hold no positions in individual securities discussed and accept no paid placement. Verify quotes, rates, benefit amounts, and dollar figures on the official source before acting. See our methodology for sourcing and corrections policy. Last reviewed: April 18, 2026.
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Written and reviewed by Shrey Patel — Founder & Editor-in-Chief
Winnipeg, MB · Fact-checked by our Banking & Credit reviewer · Last reviewed April 18, 2026 · LinkedIn
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Published by the LoonieLabs Editorial Team.