The S&P/TSX Composite finished the week roughly flat, masking a sharp split underneath. Energy added about 1.4% as WTI held above US$78, and materials extended their year-to-date lead on stronger gold. Financials were the drag — the Big Six bank index slipped on softer net-interest-margin commentary leaking out of US peer earnings.

Overnight Index Swap markets are now pricing a 92% probability that the Bank of Canada holds the overnight rate at 2.75% on April 29, with the first cut not fully priced until the September meeting. That's a meaningful shift from late March, when the curve had a cut roughly 50/50 for June.

On the rates side, posted 1-year GIC rates at the Big Six dropped another 10–15 basis points across the week. Best-in-class non-bank rates from EQ Bank, Oaken, and Hubert remain 50–80 bps above Big Six posted, but the gap is narrowing as cut expectations cool.

If you're a couch-potato investor in a TFSA or RRSP, none of the above changes the plan. Sector rotations of this size happen multiple times a year and are exactly what broad-market ETFs like XIC, VCN, or ZCN are built to absorb. Rebalancing on a fixed schedule — annually or when bands drift more than five percentage points — beats reacting to weekly leadership changes in basically every long-run study.

If you're shopping a 1-year GIC, the practical message is: the rate you can lock today is probably better than the rate you'll see in three months, but only marginally. Laddering across 1-, 2-, and 3-year terms continues to be the boring-but-correct answer for cash you don't need within twelve months.

For variable-rate mortgage holders, an April 29 hold means another month of the same payment. The relevant question is what the BoC's tone signals about June and beyond — the press conference matters more than the rate itself.

April 29 BoC decision and the accompanying Monetary Policy Report. We care most about the inflation forecast and any change in language around the neutral rate.

March CPI release on April 22. Consensus is 2.4% headline, 2.7% CPI-trim. A surprise above 2.6% headline would push out cut expectations further and likely lift the loonie.

Big Six bank Q2 earnings starting late May. The read-through from US peer commentary suggests provisions for credit losses (PCLs) will tick higher again — the question is whether dividends still get raised.

What would change our mind on the GIC view: a hot CPI print combined with hawkish BoC language could push 1-year rates back up 20–30 bps within a few weeks. We'd revisit the 'lock now' call in that scenario.