Bank of Canada April 29, 2026 Rate Decision — What to Expect
The next Bank of Canada interest rate announcement lands on April 29, 2026. The overnight rate is currently 2.25%. Overnight Index Swap (OIS) markets are pricing roughly a 7% probability of a 25 basis point cut for April 29, and about a 16% chance of a cut by the June 10 meeting. The base case is a hold, but there are real scenarios in both directions.
Where the Big Six Stand
Consensus across the Big Six bank economics teams is a hold at 2.25% through 2026. RBC, TD, BMO, CIBC, and National Bank all forecast no change at the April 29 meeting. The notable outliers are Scotiabank and Desjardins, both of which have flagged the possibility of a hike later in the year if core inflation stays sticky above 2.5% and bond yields keep climbing.
That hike scenario sounds aggressive after a year of cuts, but it's not crazy. Five-year Government of Canada bond yields have been above 3% since mid-March — the highest since mid-2024 — and the Canadian dollar has been weak against the US dollar. Both put upward pressure on imported inflation.
The Three Scenarios
Hold at 2.25% (most likely)
If the BoC holds — the consensus call — variable mortgage holders see no change. Prime stays at 4.45% at most major banks. HELOC rates stay where they are. HISA rates likely drift slightly lower as the big banks continue trimming non-promotional savings rates. Fixed mortgage rates will move on their own based on bond yields, not on the BoC.
Cut to 2.00% (~7% priced)
A surprise cut would knock prime down to 4.20%, saving about $30/month on a $500,000 variable mortgage at prime minus 0.80%. It would also signal the BoC is more worried about growth than inflation, which usually pulls the Canadian dollar lower and pushes bond yields up — meaning fixed rates might not drop even though variable did. HISA promo rates would likely follow within 1-2 weeks.
Hike to 2.50% (very low probability)
A hike at this meeting would be a genuine shock. It would add roughly $30/month to that same $500K variable mortgage and signal the BoC sees inflation risks getting worse. Fixed rates would likely jump on the announcement. This is not the consensus call, but Scotia and Desjardins keep it on the table for later in 2026.
What It Means For Your Mortgage
If you're up for renewal between now and September, the April 29 decision matters less than you'd think. The variable vs. fixed math right now is dominated by the bond market, not the overnight rate. Five-year fixed sits around 4.04–4.29% on insured mortgages and 4.49–4.79% on uninsured. Variable starts around prime minus 0.80%, so 3.65%.
That spread — about 40 basis points — is small enough that the right answer depends entirely on your tolerance for payment movement. Run both scenarios in our mortgage calculator with your actual balance and amortization to see the monthly difference in dollars, not just percentage points.
What It Means For Your Savings
HISA rates have been drifting down for months ahead of the BoC hold consensus. EQ Bank dropped to 1.75% in early April. Wealthsimple Cash sits at 2.75% on the premium tier. If the BoC holds, expect more of the same slow erosion. If they cut, the drop accelerates within two weeks.
GIC rates are more interesting. One-year GICs are still around 4.00–4.20% at the challenger banks, and five-year GICs sit around 3.75–4.00%. If you're parking cash for a known goal in the next 1-3 years, locking in now is reasonable — see current GIC rates and HISA rates side by side.
The Decision Tree
Three things to check on the morning of April 29:
- The rate decision itself (10:00 AM ET) — hold, cut, or hike.
- The Monetary Policy Report — specifically the inflation forecast revision and the language on "balanced risks" vs. "skewed to the upside."
- The press conference at 10:30 AM ET — Macklem's tone matters more than the words. A confident hold sounds different from a reluctant one.
We'll update this article within an hour of the announcement with the actual decision and what to do about it. If you want to be ready, plug your mortgage balance into our mortgage calculator now so you can swap rates the moment the decision drops.
Editorial disclaimer
This is news reporting by LoonieLabs Editorial for general information only. It is not financial, tax, legal, or investment advice. Markets coverage is reported analysis, not personalized advice — we hold no positions in individual securities discussed and accept no paid placement. Verify quotes, rates, benefit amounts, and dollar figures on the official source before acting. See our methodology for sourcing and corrections policy. Last reviewed: April 23, 2026.
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Written and reviewed by Shrey Patel — Founder & Editor-in-Chief
Winnipeg, MB · Fact-checked by our Banking & Credit reviewer · Last reviewed April 23, 2026 · LinkedIn
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Published by the LoonieLabs Editorial Team.