Update, June 10, 2026: The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 2.25% at today's meeting — a fourth straight hold, matching the consensus call from five of the six major bank economics teams below. CIBC was the lone dissenter, calling for a 25 bp cut. The next scheduled decision is July 29, 2026.

The analysis below was published April 22, 2026, ahead of the decision, and is preserved as originally written for context on how the call was made.

The Bank of Canada's overnight rate had sat at 2.25% for two consecutive meetings (March 12 and April 29, 2026). With the next decision June 10, 2026, attention has shifted to the May data window — particularly the April CPI print due May 21 and the May labour force survey on June 6 (after the meeting). Here's where the consensus stood as of April 22.

What futures markets are pricing

As of the April 22 close, OIS (overnight index swap) markets price roughly an 18% probability of a 25 bp cut on June 4 and 82% probability of a hold. Looking further out, traders price a cumulative 38 bps of cuts by year-end 2026 — implying one full cut and a coin-flip on a second. That's hawkish relative to where pricing sat in February (when the curve implied 60+ bps of cuts).

The CPI question

March headline CPI came in at 2.3% year-over-year, just above the BoC's 2% target midpoint. Core measures (CPI-trim and CPI-median) averaged 2.65%. Both numbers are inside the 1–3% control range but neither shows the sustained sub-2% trajectory the Bank typically wants before easing.

The April print on May 21 is the meeting's single most important data release. Economist consensus (RBC, BMO, TD, Scotia, CIBC, NBC, Desjardins surveyed by Bloomberg, April 18) sits at:

• Headline CPI: 2.2% y/y (range 2.0–2.4%)
• CPI-trim: 2.6% y/y
• CPI-median: 2.5% y/y

A print at or below the consensus headline opens the door to a June cut. A print at 2.4% or above effectively closes it.

What the Big 6 economists are saying

Five of six call a June hold. CIBC is the lone dove, citing the Q1 GDP miss (0.8% annualized vs. 1.4% consensus) and softening payroll employment in February.

What it means for your borrowing costs

Variable mortgage and HELOC rates move with the BoC's overnight rate. A June hold means another roughly six weeks at current prime (currently 4.45%). If you're shopping a variable-rate mortgage, our mortgage calculator lets you stress-test payments against +25 bp and −25 bp scenarios.

Fixed mortgage rates aren't directly tied to BoC moves — they track the 5-year Government of Canada bond yield, which closed April 22 at 3.18% (down 11 bps month-over-month). That's why several lenders have trimmed 5-year fixed offers below 4.30% in the past two weeks despite the BoC sitting still.

On the savings side, GIC rates have started drifting lower in anticipation of cuts later in 2026. A 1-year GIC at EQ Bank pays 3.85% today, down from 4.15% in February. See live rates on our GIC rates page.

Bottom line

The base case going in was a hold on June 10 — and that's what happened. Attention now turns to the July 29 meeting, where a 25 bp cut is back on the table if the June and July CPI prints both come in at or below 2.2%. See our July 29 preview for the latest positioning.

Sources: Bank of Canada (bankofcanada.ca), Statistics Canada CPI release April 15, 2026, Bloomberg economist survey April 18, 2026.